Nfl Sleeper Picks

Get sleeper picks from 50+ fantasy football experts. We compare expert rankings to ADP from Yahoo, ESPN and CBS to uncover NFLs hidden gems. When it comes to fantasy football, championships aren't won in the early rounds of the draft. NFL DFS expert Sloan Piva from RotoQL breaks down the top picks and sleeper picks for Super Bowl DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. Get strategy advice and tips to help you cash in your daily fantasy.

• Nfl Sleeper Picks Week 7
• Nfl Sleeper Picks Fantasy
• Nfl Sleeper Picks Fantasy
• Nfl Sleeper Picks Week 7
• Nfl Sleeper Picks Week 4
• Nfl Sleeper Picks

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – AUGUST 29: Cam Akers #23 of the Los Angeles Rams look son during a team scrimmage at SoFi Stadium on August 29, 2020 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Every years, some NFL players burst onto the national spotlight with breakout seasons. Here are 10 players who are sleeper candidates for 2020.

When the NFL season kicks off, major expectations for greatness already rest upon the shoulders of some of the league's most established superstars like Patrick Mahomes, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas and countless others.

Even still, while those players will dominate storylines throughout the season, it will be stars of tomorrow that seemingly come out of nowhere to take the league by storm and become standouts in their own rights.

What players top the list of most likely to go from sleepers to stars in the 2020 NFL season?

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

In the second round of this year's draft, the Rams selected Florida State running back Cam Akers. This came as a surprise after the team appeared ready to give youngster Darrell Henderson the bulk of the carries.

However, Henderson failed to secure the starting job a season ago despite Todd Gurley's struggles, and managed only 39 carries for 147 yards in 13 games.

Additionally, Akers is a legitimate three-down back with play-making potential. With the Seminoles in 2019, he notched 1,144 yards and 14 touchdowns in 11 games. Overall, Akers put up almost 3,000 rushing yards while also adding nearly 500 yards receiving in college.

Look for Akers to seize the every down back role early in the season, and begin his ascent to stardom.

Credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns

As a rookie in 2017, Hunt burst onto the scene for more than 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns, making the Pro Bowl and igniting the Kansas City Chiefs' offense.

The next year, Hunt was on track to be even better, but off-field transgressions caused Kansas City to cut its star rusher, and Hunt sat out the rest of the season as a free agent.

The Cleveland Browns took a gamble and signed Hunt, knowing he'd be suspended for half of the 2019 season but speculated it would be worth the risk. And, Hunt was not terrible in his eight games in Cleveland, but he managed only 4.2 yards per carry and never seemed to get into a good rhythm.

But in 2020 the former Toledo standout has a full offseason with the Browns. He also has no suspension to deal with and a contract yet ahead. Look for Hunt to re-establish himself to his pre-suspension form and as one of the top rushers in football.

Whatever occurs, it is fair to label Hunt as an excellent sleeper for 2020.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Will Fuller V, Houston Texans

For years, Fuller has had two major barriers keeping him from reaching the potential.

First, the presence of superstar receiver DeAndre Hopkins has blocked the WR1 role, and for good reason. Second is injuries, as the former Notre Dame pass catcher has failed to play in more than 14 games in any season.

Obviously, the first issue was resolved by Bill O'Brien's substantial lack of judgement, as Hopkins was traded to the Arizona Cardinals for a second-round pick and running back David Johnson. While the team also traded for wideout Brandin Cooks, Fuller should be able to become the number one wideout for quarterback Deshaun Watson in 2020.

The second problem is less clear and simple to resolve. But, one has to think at some point, Fuller will be able to stay healthy for an entire season.

The Texans picked up their fifth-year option on Fuller a year ago, which sets the stage for Fuller to be a free agent when the season ends. So putting together a complete season, and being highly productive in doing so, will be imperative for his future.

Look for Fuller to have a breakout season for Houston in 2020.

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles. (Photo by Benjamin Solomon/Getty Images)

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles

In the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, the Eagles selected Sanders out of Penn State. The pick was instantly hailed, one which would propel the Eagles' offense to the next level and help them regain their Super Bowl form.

And Sanders was good in his rookie campaign, putting up1,327 yards of total offense and six touchdowns. He could have been even better if he'd not be limited by injuries around him on the offense.

In 2020, the team invested a great deal of resources in the receiver position, which should make life easier for both Sanders and quarterback Carson Wentz. With Howard gone, Sanders should be getting more touches in a better offense this season.

A hinderance may be that two of the team's starting offensive linemen have already lost their seasons due to injury. Yet, perhaps that makes the short passing game an even bigger component of the offense, which means more targets for Sanders in the long run.

Sanders was a celebrated pick for Philadelphia just 16 months ago. But, despite that initial reaction, he seems to have been largely forgotten in the national narrative. Look for a breakout season from the former Nittany Lion.

Atlanta Falcons WR Calvin Ridley. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons drafted Ridley in the first round of the 2018 Draft, and hoped to pair him with superstar receiver Julio Jones to create one of the best wide receiver duos in football.

As a rookie, Ridley played in all 16 games and gained over 800 receiving yards in his complementary role, proving the Falcons were on the right track when the took the former SEC standout.

In 2019, Ridley followed up that campaign with another 800+ yard season, but also struggled with injuries. In 2020, not only is Ridley healthy, but the rest of his team appears to be as well. This includes new starting running back Todd Gurley who should open up the passing game more for quarterback Matt Ryan, and improve the overall efficiency of the offense for Ridley, and the rest of the skill position players.

The other reality that makes Ridley a good candidate to breakout is the team lost Austin Hooper this offseason. Atlanta traded for Hayden Hurst in an effort to replace Hooper – but Hurst isn't the same type of weapon. This means there should be more targets for Ridley in the offense, increasing his volume of work as a whole.

Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs. (Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images)

Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs

It should be no secret the Chiefs offense is stacked. Not only do the defending champions return nearly every player who started the Super Bowl for them (eight of 11 on offense after Damien Williams and Laurent Duvurnay-Tardif opted out), but they also add the unique skillset of running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, whom they selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.

So, why then, if the team is so loaded, is second-year receiver Mecole Hardman a sleeper candidate heading into the season? The reason is simple: Kansas City plans on Hardman being the No. 2 receiver by season's end, and into the future, behind superstar Tyreek Hill.

This is evident in the way the team has managed contracts at the position: Sammy Watkins has been restructured, making this the likely last season he spends as Kansas City's WR2; and the team re-signed Demarcus Robinson in the offseason, but only committed to him for one year. It is clear, then, the plan is for Hill and Hardman to headline the Chiefs wide receiving corps moving forward.

The other consideration is comparing the trajectory of Hill's rookie campaign to that of Hardman's. The two had nearly identical roles on the team – as returners and in terms of offensive usage – as rookies. If Hardman experiences even 60 percent of the leap which Hill did, he'll be a star in his own right by season's end.

Look for the Chiefs' quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and this offense, to continue to create superstars at every turn.

Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals

After being traded to by the Miami Dolphins during the middle of the 2019 season, Drake amassed 643 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground in eight games for the Cardinals. He added another 170 yards receiving, and demonstrated why Arizona was willing to give up draft capital to acquire the fourth-year rusher.

The Cardinals' offense, under the guidance of head coach Kliff Kingsbury and leadership of quarterback Kyler Murray, has just begun to scratch the surface of what it's capable of. Arizona will have one of the top five offenses in football by season's end.

In addition to the natural progression of such a young team, there were two major changes to the Arizona offense Drake will benefit from. First, the subtraction of running back David Johnson. Second, of course, is the mega addition of All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, for whom the team traded in the offseason.

The Cardinals offense will take huge steps in 2020 – and Murray, Hopkins and Fitzgerald will be big reasons why. And the biggest benefactors of all of their work, will be Drake.

Denver Broncos, Courtland Sutton, #14 Credit: Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

No team has invested more around their young starting quarterback this offseason than the Denver Broncos.

Not only has the team improved the offensive line, but they also improved an already solid running game with the addition of Melvin Gordon. And, the team massively boosted the passing game with the additions of draft picks Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Albert Okwuegbunam to the passing game.

The biggest beneficiary of all of this, of course, is quarterback Drew Lock. But, the second biggest beneficiary is third-year receiver Courtland Sutton. After a good rookie season, Sutton really took off in 2019, notching over 1,100 yards receiving and six touchdowns. But what really stood out for the first time Pro Bowler, was the chemistry that existed between he and rookie quarterback Drew Lock.

Sutton can not only repeat his 2019 Pro Bowl appearance, but he can outperform that, and all expectations, by becoming one of the top 10 wideouts in the NFL.

Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins. 15 2 odds payout. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins

Breida had a strong 2019 campaign as part of a highly effective running back committee for the NFC-champion San Francisco 49ers. Despite his efforts, Breida was shipped to the Dolphins in the offseason to give way in the bay to Raheem Mostert.

But the fresh start in South Beach could be what Breida needs to go from quality NFL rusher to a bonafide three-down, stud running back.

Breida will be spelled in Miami by fellow veteran rusher and new Dolphin Jordan Howard, who will provide stability at the RB2 position which will continue to help Breida thrive, as he did in San Francisco.

Breida also stands to benefit from a quarterback very similar to the one he played with a season ago – an adequate game manager who is most effective in a run first, short passing game kind of offense. In this way, Ryan Fitzpatrick is quite similar to Jimmy Garappolo; and in that light, Breida should continue to be an effective lead back for the Miami offense.

As he helps to transform the perennial bottom-dwelling Miami club into a legitimate playoff contender, Breida is an underdeveloped story that we'll all start to talk about more as the season progresses.

Nick Foles, Chicago Bears (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Nick Foles, Chicago Bears

It feels very strange calling a former Super Bowl MVP a sleeper candidate, but here we are.

Foles, of course, missed much of the 2019 season after suffering a broken collarbone in Week 1. Yet he's still only three years removed from taking the reigns in Philadelphia from injured quarterback Carson Wentz, and leading the Eagles all the way to the Lombardi Trophy.

Foles is entering what is almost the perfect situation for him. He's playing in an offense he's very familiar with, having spent time in Kansas City with head coach Matt Nagy before ending up in Philadelphia. He's playing in an offense with multiple capable playmakers including a more traditional rusher (David Montgomery), a scat-back type (Tarik Cohen) and excellent a great receiver in Allen Robinson.

The other component that makes this a great situation is the defense is still championship quality. The unit is lead by two of the best players at their positions in all of football, in safety Eddie Jackson and pass rusher Khalil Mack.

Despite his resume, Foles remains one of the most slept-on players in the NFL heading into the 2020 season.

As we enter into the heart of fantasy football draft season, we circled back with our ESPN Fantasy Football experts to bring you their latest sleepers, busts and breakout players for the 2020 campaign, as defined here:

• Sleeper: A player who will far surpass his average draft position (ADP) in standard ESPN leagues for the 2020 season.

• Bust: A player who is expected to be a solid starter in standard ESPN leagues but will fail to live up to those expectations this season.

• Breakout: A player who will leap into or close to the upper echelon of players at his position for the first time because of a dramatic increase in production compared with his previous seasons (or a rookie who will burst onto the scene).

Our panel is composed of the following ESPN Fantasy writers and editors: Stephania Bell, Matthew Berry, Matt Bowen, Tom Carpenter, Mike Clay, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Daniel Dopp, Eric Karabell, Keith Lipscomb, Jim McCormick and Field Yates.

Each analyst named a sleeper and a bust for each of the major offensive positions, as well as one breakout candidate. You can find their picks below, and then analysis and insight on a selection of players they felt most passionate about in each category.

Create or join an ESPN Fantasy football league today

Quarterback sleepers

Stephania Bell: Cam Newton, New England Patriots
Matthew Berry: Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville Jaguars
Matt Bowen: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Tom Carpenter: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Mike Clay: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
Daniel Dopp: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Eric Karabell: Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville Jaguars
Keith Lipscomb: Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Jim McCormick: Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville Jaguars
Field Yates: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Quarterback busts

Stephania Bell: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Matthew Berry: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Matt Bowen: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Tom Carpenter: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Mike Clay: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Daniel Dopp: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Eric Karabell: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Keith Lipscomb: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Jim McCormick: Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Field Yates: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Running back sleepers

Stephania Bell: Antonio Gibson, Washington
Matthew Berry: Antonio Gibson, Washington
Matt Bowen: J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Tom Carpenter: Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Mike Clay: Darrell Henderson Jr., Los Angeles Rams
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Damien Harris, New England Patriots
Daniel Dopp: Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
Eric Karabell: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Keith Lipscomb: Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Jim McCormick: Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins
Field Yates: James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

Running back busts

Stephania Bell: Le'Veon Bell, New York Jets
Matthew Berry: Le'Veon Bell, New York Jets
Matt Bowen: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta Falcons
Tom Carpenter: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Mike Clay: J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta Falcons
Daniel Dopp: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta Falcons
Eric Karabell: David Johnson, Houston Texans
Keith Lipscomb: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta Falcons
Jim McCormick: Todd Gurley II, Atlanta Falcons
Field Yates: Le'Veon Bell, New York Jets

Wide receiver sleepers

Stephania Bell: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Matthew Berry: Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears
Matt Bowen: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Tom Carpenter: DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Mike Clay: Preston Williams, Miami Dolphins
Tristan H. Cockcroft: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Daniel Dopp: DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Eric Karabell: Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
Keith Lipscomb: Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Jim McCormick: Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
Field Yates: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots

Wide receiver busts

Stephania Bell: Keenan Allen, Las Angeles Chargers
Matthew Berry: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Matt Bowen: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Tom Carpenter: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Clay: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Daniel Dopp: A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
Eric Karabell: A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
Keith Lipscomb: Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys
Jim McCormick: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
Field Yates: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

Tight end sleepers

Stephania Bell: Blake Jarwin, Dallas Cowboys
Matthew Berry: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Matt Bowen: Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans
Tom Carpenter: O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Clay: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons
Daniel Dopp: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Eric Karabell: Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints
Keith Lipscomb: Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons
Jim McCormick: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
Field Yates: Chris Herndon, New York Jets

Tight end busts

Stephania Bell: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
Matthew Berry: Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints
Matt Bowen: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Carpenter: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Clay: Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Daniel Dopp: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
Eric Karabell: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Keith Lipscomb: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jim McCormick: Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints
Field Yates: Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints

2020 breakout player

Stephania Bell: Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
Matthew Berry: Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Matt Bowen: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
Tom Carpenter: Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons
Mike Clay: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
Daniel Dopp: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Eric Karabell: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Keith Lipscomb: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Jim McCormick: Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
Field Yates: Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons

Sleepers

These are players our panel believes will exceed their 2020 average draft position and provide value for those who take a chance on them.

Gardner Minshew II, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Minshew is more than just a fine moustache. A surprising QB2 when active as a rookie, Minshew not only has plenty of tools to succeed and overcome pre-draft concerns as a passer, he emerged as an underrated thrower of the deep pass, and only four quarterbacks rushed for more yards last season. The Jaguars seemed a bit indifferent to building a contending team for 2020, and the quarterback competition is over with Nick Foles gone, so expect Minshew to throw and run to his heart's content -- and pile on enough fantasy points to matter. -- Eric Karabell

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions: Stafford played in only eight games last season, missing action for the first time since the 2010 season. However, through Week 9, Stafford ranked second in touchdown passes with 19 and fourth in passing yards at 2,499. Plus, he averaged 10.7 air yards per attempt last season, a 40.7% boost from his career average. Remember, Stafford has all the high-end traits of a volume thrower -- arm talent, movement skills, second-reaction ability. And playing in a Detroit with a leaky defense, Stafford could once again be forced to play 'hero ball.' Drop back and take your shots. If you draft quarterbacks late -- which I do -- then Stafford should be one of your top targets. He has QB1 upside at a current ADP of QB13. -- Matt Bowen

Hunter Renfrow, WR, Las Vegas Raiders: It took awhile for the Raiders to rely on him, but Renfrow started breaking out midway through his rookie campaign, and closed strongly with a pair of 100-yard receiving games, each featuring a touchdown catch. Those playing in PPR formats need to be aware of an emerging slot option that gets the job done with quickness and route-running over blinding speed. A 75-catch, 1,000-yard season is hardly out of the question, and hardly matches up with his draft-day value. -- Eric Karabell

Drew Lock, QB, Denver Broncos: He wasn't nearly as raw a prospect in a five-game, season-ending stint as you might think. His 64.1% completion and 19.1% off-target passing rates, as well as his 2.3 TD-to-interception ratio, were all within range of the league's averages. The Broncos then loaded up at wide receiver in the draft, adding Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler to a group that already included Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant. Lock now has one of the most intriguing up-and-coming groups of receivers in the league with which to work, so he at least should be a viable matchups play in 2020. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington: Before you call me a homer, hear me out. Washington lacks any reliable playmakers outside of Terry McLaurin, and Gibson is a versatile offensive weapon (last season he was the only FBS player to have more than 700 receiving yards and more than300 rushing yards). Yes, it was a limited sample, but Gibson averaged more than 14 yards per offensive touch. Coach Ron Rivera recently said Gibson has 'a skill set like Christian McCaffrey.' Not saying he will be CMC or even used as much as him, but OC Scott Turner knows he will have to be creative on offense, and Gibson's versatility will allow him to create mismatches all over the field. -- Matthew Berry

Matt Breida, RB, Miami Dolphins: The pitch for Breida isn't that he'll suddenly become a 20-touch feature back in Miami, as Jordan Howard seems likely to consume a sizable early-down role. Rather, I trust that Breida will command a valuable change-of-pace role with the Fins. He is a superior speedster who had the fifth-fastest average speed among NFL tailbacks while crossing the line of scrimmage with the ball last season, and who finished fifth among backs with 5.07 YPC. In Chan Gailey's last three seasons at the helm of an NFL offense, his backfields earned at least a 21% share of the team's total targets. With Howard a nonfactor as a receiver and Breida's big-play ability ideal for such usage, I think a high-end flex performance in PPR formats is entirely within the range of outcomes. -- Jim McCormick

Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots: There's a tendency to undercut the merits of slot receivers at times; heck, just look at how they are paid relative to perimeter receivers! But let's not overthink this: Edelman is an ankle-breaking, yards-after-catch machine. We don't know a ton of what life without Tom Brady looks like for Edelman, but I'm betting on him to remain a star. When Jimmy Garoppolo stepped into a starting role for two full games to start 2016, Edelman posted seven catches in each game. Cam Newton-to-Julian Edelman has lethal potency. -- Field Yates

Jonnu Smith, TE, Tennessee Titans: With Delanie Walker now out of the mix in Tennessee, Smith is one of my favorite late-round targets. In the 10 games with quarterback Ryan Tannehill as the starter in Tennessee, Smith caught 29 of 35 targets for 342 yards, including all three of his touchdown grabs. And while Tennessee's run-heavy game script does lower the floor a bit for Smith, the traits jump here. Smith has matchup ability and movement skills to produce in the open field. Look for the Titans to scheme opportunities for Smith here off play-action or when flexed from the formation. Don't be surprised if Smith posts lower-tier TE1 numbers this season. -- Matt Bowen

Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins: Despite going undrafted, Williams averaged a healthy 7.4 targets (21% share) during a 2019 rookie season that was shortened by a Week 9 ACL tear. DeVante Parker ended up with the breakout campaign, but Parker actually trailed Williams in targets (50 to 59) and air yards (692 to 843) prior to the injury. Williams' recovery will need to be monitored, but the 23-year-old appears to be a steal and is positioned as an every-down player in Gailey's WR-friendly scheme. -- Mike Clay

James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: The case for Conner is pretty simple: I believe he's going to be the guy in the Steelers' backfield, despite a host of talented other backs, including Benny Snell, Jaylen Samuels and Anthony McFarland Jr. This isn't about coach-speak or offseason soundbites -- I just believe enough in the talent of Conner to think he'll prove to be the workhorse that we saw in 2018. And when Conner gets chances, he dominates. To wit: Conner has a total of 10 games in his career with at least 18 touches, scoring an incredible 28.3 fantasy points per game in those 10 contests. -- Field Yates

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions: Given the blend of complex blocking and receiving duties at the position, there isn't a strong history of rookie NFL tight ends performing at a high statistical level. Hockenson looked to buck this trend in producing 131 yards in his professional debut in Week 1 last fall, but he gained just 367 yards over 12 games before hitting injured reserve. An historically good prospect coming into the league last year with the potential to demand a strong target share from a capable veteran quarterback in 2020, Hockenson's potential to breakout as a sophomore is quite viable. -- Jim McCormick

Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons: After two seasons largely stuck behind Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle on the Ravens' depth chart, Hurst was thrust into a golden opportunity in Atlanta this offseason. There, he'll absorb many of the targets that went in Austin Hooper's direction. Hooper had an 18.6% target share in his 13 healthy games in 2019 and was sixth best among tight ends in the category for the season when including his missed time. Hurst brings more speed to the table with similar size, so a top-eight positional season is possible. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft

Busts

Who is destined to fall short of draft-day expectations? Our panel suggests you stay away from these players, who are sure to disappoint.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I get the connection here with quarterback Tom Brady, along with the expectation that the Bucs will use more two-tight-end personnel. Throw seams and crossers. That fits the profile for Gronk, who caught 71.1% of his targets from Brady on passes thrown less than 15 yards with the Patriots from 2014 to 2018. However, Gronk's current ADP of 67.0 -- TE6 -- is simply too rich for me. He hasn't played a full season since 2011, and expecting Gronk to return as a consistent, high-end fantasy option is a bit of stretch here. Gronk should be targeted as a lower-tier TE1 in 2019. -- Matt Bowen

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills: Don't mistake his rushing success for an all-around breakthrough. Allen scored 35% (101.0 of 288.6) of his fantasy points rushing, but his passing left plenty to be desired, as he finished last among qualified quarterbacks with 58.8% completion and 23.0% off-target passing rates. Yes, Stefon Diggs' addition bolsters Allen's receiving corps, but a so-so passer is a so-so passer. Prepare for regression: Of the previous 10 quarterbacks to score at least nine rushing touchdowns in a season, the group saw a 66% decline in the category for an average loss of 7.1 scores. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft

Nfl Sleeper Picks Week 7

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens: I see three pretty significant roadblocks to fantasy success for Dobbins during his rookie season: history, scheme and competition. History: Over the past decade, only six of 23 backs drafted in the second round finished better than RB28 as a rookie. Scheme: Greg Roman's RB units usually rank high in rushes but have an average finish of 28.2 in targets and 17.3 in fantasy PPG during his six seasons as a playcaller. Competition: Dobbins will have a hard time finding enough snaps with starter Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards (NFL YPC leader over the past two seasons) in the fold. That's too many roadblocks for a player going in the sixth round. -- Mike Clay

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos: Sutton is a talented player who has managed to produce despite shaky QB play in each of the past two seasons, but consider this: In 2019, Sutton led all players in air-yard target share and was sixth among WRs in end zone targets per game. Yet even with all that opportunity, he was WR27 on a PPG basis and had just three games all season with more than five catches. Sure, the hope is a full season of Drew Lock will help that efficiency, but the Broncos spent their first two draft picks on Jeudy and Hamler, signed a capable pass-catching back in Melvin Gordon, and will presumably give sophomore TE Fant a larger role. It's going to be hard to turn a profit on Sutton at his current ESPN ADP of WR15. -- Matthew Berry

Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I am in awe of Brady. I want that to be clear. He's the greatest QB of my generation. That's why this is so hard for me. Brady's turning 43 this August, and while he's still playing at a high level, he's still human. So consider me concerned about the oldest QB in the NFL, who's learning a new offense, with new teammates, during a pandemic, while his body works overtime to be a full-time professional athlete. This is about minimizing risk, and I'd rather be a year too early than be a year too late. Brady is my QB12. -- Daniel Dopp

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers: While Rodgers is still a great real-life QB, for fantasy purposes, he no longer has the same upside or consistency as in years past. Last season, Rodgers produced fewer than 15 fantasy points in 10 of his 16 starts, and from Week 9 on, he averaged just 1.3 passing TDs and 209.8 passing yards per game. And this run-heavy approach worked, as Green Bay went to the NFC Championship Game last year. Given the team used a second-round pick on 250-pound RB AJ Dillon and did little in the way of adding additional pass-catching, help it seems likely this offense is even more run-heavy this season. I have Rodgers comfortably outside my top-12 QBs for 2020. -- Matthew Berry

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills: Diggs forced his way out of a low-volume, highly efficient Minnesota offense but is arguably in worse conditions in a Buffalo pass offense that has been low-volume, low-scoring and inefficient during the Josh Allen era. Diggs finished 2019 as the No. 24 scoring fantasy receiver, despite finishing second among receivers in YPT and with Adam Thielen missing half the season. Durability is also a concern, as Diggs has never played a full 16-game season. Consider Diggs as midrange WR3, at best. -- Mike Clay

Breakouts

Who will join the ranks of the elite and help you win your league this season? Here are our experts' picks for 2020's breakout stars and how they imagine it will take place.

Drew Lock, QB, Denver Broncos: We caught only a glimpse of Lock in 2019 (an early thumb injury ensured he would not see the field before December), but during his short time under center, he led his team to a 4-1 record. He inspired the Broncos to surround him this offseason with offensive playmakers and protectors to complement veterans like Courtland Sutton and Phillip Lindsay already in place. Add to the mix a new offensive coordinator in Pat Shurmur, who is likely to advance Lock's downfield playmaking, and he has all the ingredients at his fingertips for a breakout season. -- Stephania Bell

Nfl Sleeper Picks Fantasy

Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants: The fifth-best QB in fantasy over the second half of last season, Jones flashed massive upside as a rookie, delivering four games with 28-plus fantasy points. And he was able to do that with Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton and Evan Engram playing zero snaps together. With a deep group of offensive playmakers, plus mobility (Jones averaged more than 21 rushing yards per game in 2019), and a defense that will force him to throw plenty, Danny Dimes is in perfect position for a breakout season in 2020. -- Matthew Berry

Nfl Sleeper Picks Fantasy

Noah Fant, TE, Denver Broncos: With the ability to stretch the seams and run after the catch, Fant is a prime breakout candidate in an upgraded Broncos pass game. As a rookie last season, Fant caught 40 of 63 targets for 562 yards. And the explosive play juice is there too, as Fant produced 10 receptions of 20 yards or more. Plus, with Denver adding more speed and playmaking talent to the wide receiver position, Fant will have some room to work underneath, where the former Iowa Hawkeye averaged 7.5 air yards per target from Lock last season. There's good value here, with Fant carrying a current ADP of 119.8 (TE11). -- Matt Bowen

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: The first running back ever selected in the first round by an Andy Reid team, Edwards-Helaire will immediately be positioned for a significant role in arguably the league's best offense. The LSU product is a terrific prospect, overcoming underwhelming size and speed with elite tackle-breaking, elusiveness, and receiving ability. Reid's offenses don't offer much volume for RBs but make up for it with efficiency and a ton of touchdowns. Edwards-Helaire's second-round ADP could be a red flag since he's a rookie, but there's no doubt he has upside. -- Mike Clay

Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills: Things were looking up for Singletary during the second half of an otherwise forgettable 2019, as he averaged 16.4 carries per game and 4.6 yards per carry with 30 total targets in his final eight regular-season contests, then managed 134 yards from scrimmage in the wild-card round. With Frank Gore gone, Singletary should see easily at least that much usage and arguably more; and with Allen unlikely to repeat his 2019 rushing success, the Bills should really shift more of their rushing focus to the second-year back. Zack Moss does loom as a potential goal-line vulture, but Singletary should put forth high-end RB2 value for an RB3's price. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft

Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns: Do you remember Mayfield's rookie season, when he threw for 3,725 passing yards, 27 TDs and 14 INTs? Compare that to last season's 3,827 passing yards, 22 TDs and 21 INTs, and it's obvious he took a step backward. Luckily for Mayfield, the Browns addressed their poor offensive line, signed Austin Hooper and will bring back Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and (for now) David Njoku. That's a lot of playmakers for a quarterback who should right the ship in 2020. Baker is my QB11. -- Daniel Dopp

Nfl Sleeper Picks Week 7

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals: Rookie quarterbacks are generally far too risky to depend on, especially with so much depth at the position, but Burrow is hardly a normal rookie. His Heisman Trophy-winning numbers at LSU were historic and ridiculous, and the Bengals have surrounded him with ample talent at running back and wide receiver, and perhaps -- fingers crossed -- a competent offensive line. Burrow is so talented, he would make it work anyway. Stop wasting time on Kirk Cousins or Jared Goff types as your No. 2 QB; Burrow's fantasy upside is far more immense. -- Eric Karabell

Nfl Sleeper Picks Week 4

Mecole Hardman, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: With 20.7 yards per catch as a professional freshman for the champs last season -- a rate that would have led the league, had he qualified, with four more receptions -- Hardman's field-stretching speed and vertical potential with Patrick Mahomes create a rousing blend of upside. The floor is undoubtedly low for a big-play weapon unlikely to thrive on volume in an established offense, but his unique profile reminds me of a young DeSean Jackson, who happened to turn in roughly 1,300 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns back in his second year in Andy Reid's offense with Philadelphia. -- Jim McCormick

Nfl Sleeper Picks

Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons: There was a 10-week stretch last season when one Atlanta Falcon receiver averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game on 13.2 air yards per target, while his counterpart averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game on 13.1 air yards per target. The former is Calvin Ridley, the latter Julio Jones. But this is more than just a connecting of dots based on previous production, this is a calculated bet on Ridley's route-running ability, his nose for the end zone and playing in a division where keeping up is going to involve throwing it a ton. Ridley checks the boxes of a player ready to explode. -- Field Yates